The bank made the forecast based on its expectation that spot Bitcoin ETFs could attract inflows of $50-100 billion in 2024.
Multinational bank Standard Chartered predicts that Bitcoin (BTC) could reach nearly $200,000 by the end of next year if Bitcoin exchange-traded funds are approved and are successful in the United States.
The bank based the price prediction on the assumption that between 437,000 and 1.32 million Bitcoin, will be held in United-States-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs by the end of 2024. The firm estimates this to equate between $50-100 billion in inflows.
“If ETF-related inflows materalise as we expect, we think an end-2025 level closer to USD 200,000 is possible,” said Standard Chartered head of digital assets Geoff Kendrick and precious metals analyst Suki Cooper in a Jan. 8 report, which has been shared on X (formerly Twitter).
Kendrick and Cooper’s $200,000 prediction means that Bitcoin must increase 4.3 times from its current price of $47,000.
However, the Standard Chartered executives noted the value of gold exchange-traded products multiplied by this 4.3 figure around seven to eight years after gold ETPs were launched in November 2004.
“We expect Bitcoin to enjoy price gains of a similar magnitude as a result of US spot ETF approval, but we see these gains materalising over a shorter (one- to two-year) period, given our view that the BTC ETF market will develop more quickly.”
Kendrick and Cooper said they view spot Bitcoin ETF approvals as a “watershed moment” for normalizing Bitcoin participation.
The banking executives also noted its latest Bitcoin price prediction is in line with its recent Bitcoin price prediction of $100,000 by the end of 2024.
While much investor focus has centered around the spot Bitcoin ETFs, one industry pundit says Bitcoin’s strengthened network “fundamentals” should be another factor to consider when evaluating Bitcoin’s price.
Blockchain strategist Jamie Coutts of Pragmatic Blockchain Research noted Bitcoin’s fundamentals are at an all-time high, according to a logarithmic “Bitcoin Network Activity” by “Bitcoin Price” graph that he shared by blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant.com on Jan. 8.
“With novel use cases like inscriptions, Bitcoin’s network fundamentals appear the strongest since the 2016-2017 cycle,” said Coutts, who previously worked at Bloomberg Intelligence as a cryptocurrency market analyst.
“Yet $BTC is still 40% below its peak,” Coutts said. “Undervalued.”
Bloomberg Intelligence’s senior macroeconomic strategist Mike McGlone was less confident Bitcoin will sustain its rally after Bitcoin ETFs are potentially approved.
“Risk assets have to go down. It’s almost always — that’s what’s missing. And Bitcoin is one of the riskiest assets,” McGlone said during a Macro Monday talk show with host Scott Melker on Jan. 8, adding:
“We’ve had the hopium. We’ve rallied 50% from $30 [thousand]. We’ve rallied 3x from last year […] You don’t want to be getting overweight here. You want to be saying thank you.”
“This is the week. If they rug pull, that’s bad. If they launch, well, the lessons have been that those haven’t been good, and is there a lot of hype and bullishness? Yeah, as much as I’ve seen in other peaks,” he added.