Ethereum News

Ethereum losing streak vs. Bitcoin hits 15 months — Can ETH price reverse course?

Bitcoin ETF and halving buzz have boosted BTC’s demand vs. Ethereum in recent weeks.

Ethereum losing streak vs. Bitcoin hits 15 months — Can ETH price reverse course?

Market Analysis

The price of Ethereum’s native token, Ether

ETH

$1,877 , is trading around a 15-month low versus Bitcoin

BTC

$34,829 , and the lowest since Ethereum switched to proof-of-stake (PoS).

Will it continue to weaken for the remainder of 2023? Cointelegraph takes a closer look at the charts. 

Ethereum price breaks below critical support vs. Bitcoin

The ETH/BTC pair dropped to as low as 0.056 BTC earlier this week. In doing so, the pair broke below its 200-week exponential moving average (200-week EMA; the blue wave) near 0.058 BTC, raising downside risks further into 2023.

The 200-week EMA has historically served as a reliable support level for ETH/BTC bulls. For instance, the pair rebounded 75% three months after testing the wave support in July 2022. Conversely, it dropped over 25% after losing the same support in October 2020.

ETH/BTC weekly price chart. Source: TradingView

ETH/BTC stares at similar sell-off risks in 2023 after losing its 200-week EMA as support. In this case, the next downside target looks to be around its 0.5 Fib line near 0.051 BTC in 2023, down about 9.5% from current price levels.

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Conversely, ETH price may rebound toward its 50-week EMA (the red wave) near 0.065 BTC if it reclaims the 200-week EMA as support.

Bitcoin bull case overshadows Ethereum

Ethereum’s persistent weakness versus Bitcoin is reflected in institutional capital flow data. 

For instance, as of Oct. 6, Bitcoin-specific investment funds had attracted $246 million year-to-date (YTD), according to CoinShares. On the other hand, Ethereum funds have lost capital, witnessing outflows worth $104 million in the same period.

Net flows into crypto funds (by asset). Source: CoinShares

The discrepancy is likely due to growing buzz about a potential spot Bitcoin exchange-traded product (ETF) approval in the United States.

Trade pundits argue that a spot Bitcoin ETF launch will attract $600 billion. In addition, Bitcoin’s fourth halving on April 24, 2024, is also acting as a tailwind versus the altcoin market.

Related: Bitcoin price gets new $25K target as SEC decision day boosts GBTC

The halving will reduce the Bitcoin miners’ block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC, a bullish case based on historical precedent that cuts new supply in half. 

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