Bitcoin is not in the mood for another breakout attempt, and even five-month lows in the U.S. Dollar Index can’t budge a flat BTC price.
$43,625 failed to react to positive inflation cues on Dec. 22 as United States macro data boosted bets on an interest rate pivot.
Fed January pivot odds near 15% after PCE print
Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView tracked muted BTC price movements around the week’s final Wall Street open.
Despite a breakout beyond $44,000 earlier in the week, range resistance remained firmly in place for Bitcoin ahead of the U.S. holiday period.
The November print of the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Index, known to be the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge, nonetheless beat expectations.
The final number came in at 2.6% versus the anticipated 2.8%, further showing the impact of monetary policy tightening on rampant inflation.
Markets reacted in step, increasing their odds of interest rates cooling next month to around 15%, per data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
“This is the lowest PCE inflation number since May 2021. Another welcomed sign by the Fed,” trading resource The Kobeissi Letter wrote in part of its commentary on X (formerly Twitter).
Kobeissi added that November macro releases had almost unanimously adhered to the waning inflation narrative.
“Just about all of the inflation data for November has moved in the right direction,” it continued.
“This has reinforced market hopes of Fed rate cuts in 2024. Still, the question is how many rate cuts and when they’ll begin.”
Dollar decline not enough for sideways Bitcoin
BTC price action offered little hope to bulls on the day despite the encouraging macro signals and a drop in U.S. dollar strength, which dropped to its lowest since late July.
Behind the scenes, popular trader Skew nonetheless noted rising bid liquidity on the largest global exchange, Binance, boosting $41,000 and $42,000 as support.
In his latest trading advice, fellow trader Crypto Tony flagged $44,300 as a line in the sand for BTC/USD to reclaim in order to consider long positions.
Others noted the requirement for Bitcoin to crush its current 2023 highs, with a consolidatory structure in place for much of December.
“Bitcoin has formed a rectangle consolidation,” trader and analyst Alan Tardigrade told X subscribers on the day.
“If it breaks out the top resistance line, the measured target could reach $48k.”